China 30 ECFR policy report Book 66 eBook Michael Anti Mark Leonard
Download As PDF : China 30 ECFR policy report Book 66 eBook Michael Anti Mark Leonard
China is not only changing leaders; it is also moving into the next phase of its development. This unique collection of essays – written by China’s most prominent thinkers – provides an unrivalled insight into the big debates that are taking place about the future of China’s growth model, its political system and its foreign policy.
They suggest that China could be on the verge of a change as significant as Mao Zedong’s Communist revolution (China 1.0) and Deng Xiaoping’s market revolution (China 2.0). We call this “China 3.0”.
China 30 ECFR policy report Book 66 eBook Michael Anti Mark Leonard
Corruption is causing the most tension in today's China, per author Anti; this is seemingly confirmed by the considerable public attention now focused on such by its new leaders. He says the Chinese think of history in 30-year cycles. China 1.0 was the years of Mao, from 1949 to 1978 when China had a planned economy and a foreign policy of spreading revolution, China 2.0 was the China that began with Deng Xiaoping and is 'socialism with Chinese characteristics' in 1978 that emphasized export-led growth and a quest for stability (leading to the Tiananmen massacre) that lasted until the 2008 financial crisis. China 3.0 is now faced with crises borne out of Deng's successes and the new model (egalitarian social policies) provided by Bo Xilai's Chongqing (eg. reforms to the hukou system, a fairer land exchange scheme, and emphasis on domestic consumption).The debate now is between liberals wanting limits on the state's power and neo-authoritarians fearing such will lead to a bureaucratic government unable to make tough decisions or challenge the corruption, between defensive internationalists wanting to play a role in existing global institutions and nationalists wanting China to assert itself, and between a Darwinist New Right wanting to privatize all the SOEs to unlock entrepreneurial energy and an egalitarian New Left believing China's growth will best continue through clever state planning (eg. Justin Yifu Lin - at least for another two decades). Still others are concerned at the growth of inequality and China's loss of its 'iron rice bowl' of social protections - the most obvious display of which are the millions of migrants lacking rights to urban housing, education, and health-care. Lacking these benefits, citizens save almost half their incomes as a hedge, but the state-owned banks gives them artificially low interest rates that make capital available for speculative investments.
In 1995 China's domestic intelligence service reported there were almost 9,000 violent demonstrations that year; state-backed studies estimate that has risen to 180,000 by 2011. Guangdon has become a model of flexible authoritarianism - Wukan village in that province saw peasants battling over land confiscated by corrupt local authorities, with the dispute resolved with an election. Others, especially those of age during the Cultural Revolution, fear mass democracy becoming mob rule, and or have been influenced by the growth of problems with democracy in developed nations. Still others see widespread contempt for the law making it impossible to find an institutional fix, requiring the charismatic power of leader (eg. Mao, Deng). Finally, there's debate between those seeing the Internet as inevitably bringing greater freedom, and others contending the state has manipulated it to mobilize electronic crowds the play the same role as the Red Guards in the Cultural Revolution.
When Deng began the reversal of Mao's thinking he counseled that China should keep a low profile, avoid conflicts, and concentrate on economic development. Thus, it accepted U.S. international domination and extracted benefits from free-riding on American protection of its own investments. China now has to protect the interests and safety of its citizens around the world, some 130 million, many in unstable places such as Afghanistan, Iran, and Angola. That, combined with its strong reliance on energy and other commodities from far-away places, has brought talk of the need for a blue-water navy. Complicating the situation is that Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Senkaku Islands have helped create a resurgence of American power in Asia. Meanwhile, China's foreign ministry is 'out-ranked' by many companies, SOEs, and provincial governments interested in advancing their profits, and outpourings of anger on the Internet about the preceding territory disputes suggests the Chinese people expect tougher policies towards their neighbors.
Chinese economists predict their nation's economy will double America's by the end of the next 20 years, becoming the world's largest domestic market and the biggest source of foreign investment. Author Anti suggests that the rest of the world must abandon its visions of China 1.0 and 2.0, and rethink relationships with China 3.0
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China 30 ECFR policy report Book 66 eBook Michael Anti Mark Leonard Reviews
While the concept of the book; highlighting the differing academic views of key challenges/solutions facing challenge; across the political spectrum is a good one - the book fails to deliver. A more fulsome exploration of this categorization would have been more beneficial for the authors, and for us readers.
What is of high value is debunking the myth that all Chinese academics think alike, or are homogenous in their interpretations of the socialist system, Marxism, capitalism. This is very good and very important for anyone living in China, visiting China, interested in doing business in China.
However, relegating an expert like Justin Lin, for example, to a mere few pages, from his lifetime of analyzing the Chinese economy and how it operates, adapts and also changes to the new global reality,,,,,,,doesn't do justice. If the authors wish to issue another edition that is deeper in context and analysis, it could be more valuable.
In all the discussions one finds on China Today this may be the most thoughtfully constructed work available to western readers. Quoting the author's summary "The purpose of this book is to get beyond the speculation about quarterly growth figures and who is up and down in the party hierarchy - and instead to shine some light on some of the big debates that are taking place within the Chinese intellectual, political, and economic elites about the future of China's growth model, its political system, and its foreign policy." It does that, and raises issues that will surely linger on for years to come.
Its sole short coming is that it was constructed prior to the Hu-Wen to Xi-Li transition in power and so has no contemporary take on the tact taken by these leaders in the last couple years, particularly those of General Party Secretary-President Xi Jinping. Are the new leaders dealing with the same issues raised by the contributors of China 3, or have they enlarged the issue of the long term survival of the CCP hardly touched in the very academically structured discussions of this book?
Certainly the current purges of leading figures for corruption have elements of "who is up and down in the party hierarchy" but many of Xi Jinping's actions reflect a larger issue he has raised for party consideration The Gorbochev Problem" of the demise of Communism. Fortunately, his actions can be followed by journalistic offerings and will be analyzed. This fine book gives the reader the internal Chinese thinking on the large matters, internal and international, that China must deal with as it moves forward. There is some wheel spinning in some of the discussions, but on the whole truly a treasure of analysis not to be missed by those concerned with China's future directions.
Corruption is causing the most tension in today's China, per author Anti; this is seemingly confirmed by the considerable public attention now focused on such by its new leaders. He says the Chinese think of history in 30-year cycles. China 1.0 was the years of Mao, from 1949 to 1978 when China had a planned economy and a foreign policy of spreading revolution, China 2.0 was the China that began with Deng Xiaoping and is 'socialism with Chinese characteristics' in 1978 that emphasized export-led growth and a quest for stability (leading to the Tiananmen massacre) that lasted until the 2008 financial crisis. China 3.0 is now faced with crises borne out of Deng's successes and the new model (egalitarian social policies) provided by Bo Xilai's Chongqing (eg. reforms to the hukou system, a fairer land exchange scheme, and emphasis on domestic consumption).
The debate now is between liberals wanting limits on the state's power and neo-authoritarians fearing such will lead to a bureaucratic government unable to make tough decisions or challenge the corruption, between defensive internationalists wanting to play a role in existing global institutions and nationalists wanting China to assert itself, and between a Darwinist New Right wanting to privatize all the SOEs to unlock entrepreneurial energy and an egalitarian New Left believing China's growth will best continue through clever state planning (eg. Justin Yifu Lin - at least for another two decades). Still others are concerned at the growth of inequality and China's loss of its 'iron rice bowl' of social protections - the most obvious display of which are the millions of migrants lacking rights to urban housing, education, and health-care. Lacking these benefits, citizens save almost half their incomes as a hedge, but the state-owned banks gives them artificially low interest rates that make capital available for speculative investments.
In 1995 China's domestic intelligence service reported there were almost 9,000 violent demonstrations that year; state-backed studies estimate that has risen to 180,000 by 2011. Guangdon has become a model of flexible authoritarianism - Wukan village in that province saw peasants battling over land confiscated by corrupt local authorities, with the dispute resolved with an election. Others, especially those of age during the Cultural Revolution, fear mass democracy becoming mob rule, and or have been influenced by the growth of problems with democracy in developed nations. Still others see widespread contempt for the law making it impossible to find an institutional fix, requiring the charismatic power of leader (eg. Mao, Deng). Finally, there's debate between those seeing the Internet as inevitably bringing greater freedom, and others contending the state has manipulated it to mobilize electronic crowds the play the same role as the Red Guards in the Cultural Revolution.
When Deng began the reversal of Mao's thinking he counseled that China should keep a low profile, avoid conflicts, and concentrate on economic development. Thus, it accepted U.S. international domination and extracted benefits from free-riding on American protection of its own investments. China now has to protect the interests and safety of its citizens around the world, some 130 million, many in unstable places such as Afghanistan, Iran, and Angola. That, combined with its strong reliance on energy and other commodities from far-away places, has brought talk of the need for a blue-water navy. Complicating the situation is that Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Senkaku Islands have helped create a resurgence of American power in Asia. Meanwhile, China's foreign ministry is 'out-ranked' by many companies, SOEs, and provincial governments interested in advancing their profits, and outpourings of anger on the Internet about the preceding territory disputes suggests the Chinese people expect tougher policies towards their neighbors.
Chinese economists predict their nation's economy will double America's by the end of the next 20 years, becoming the world's largest domestic market and the biggest source of foreign investment. Author Anti suggests that the rest of the world must abandon its visions of China 1.0 and 2.0, and rethink relationships with China 3.0
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